Survival Chances Explained

August 17, 2023

When someone you care about has cancer this is a question you want to ask but know you just can’t.  Of course google to the rescue right? The tricky part is those are averages across a wide group with a similar stage and diagnosis profile but the Oncologist works with the patient to give them a clearer answer (which is still an educated guess). 

Big Picture: According to the National Cancer Institute (NCI), the survival rate for females with stage 3 breast cancer over a 5-year period is approximately 86%.

My personal scenario: my survival estimate for 5 years is lower, about 75%. Why?  Multiple reasons, but what I understand from the doctor (and frankly just knowing my body) this puppy grew quickly. At age 40 I had a routine, baseline mammogram done.  I almost considered skipping as I have limited family history of cancers and certainly no breast cancer in close family.  If you hear one thing it’s this- if you have boobs and are 40 or greater, get a base line mammogram. That helped prove to doctors what I knew… it grew from nothing to 8.4 CM in less than 2 years. For cancer, that is fast and aggressive.  Without that early mammogram they likely thought I had it cooking for more than five years as that would be more typical. So that’s the biggest reason for the reduction from 86% to 75%.  Another BIG factor, during the mastectomy they removed 4 lymph nodes. All 4 had cancer and 3 had visual masses. No good. That’s why I will go back for more lymph node surgery after chemo.  Hopefully they are fried at this point- charred masses.

Long story short, I’m choosing to listen to the experts – I need to throw the book at this now. Mastectomy, 5 months of chemo, more surgery, radiation, and various ongoing pills that will reduce estrogen in my body. Welcome hot flashes, good bye periods. TMI I know.  Throwing the book at it now gives me that 75% chance, if I did partial or nothing my chances go down a fair amount. 

I know this is a lot to digest but I want to be transparent as each person’s journey is different.  I can now respect more than ever why decisions are not clear cut.  Chemo and radiation and surgeries do put your life on hold and impacts your family. Period. If I were 83, I might not choose to go through this. But I’m 43, and confident I will be in the 75%. I will see my kids grow up!  I can do anything for a year. And if it comes back, I’ll fight again. 

As we are taking survival, I thought I’d share what I learned today.  I asked if my cancer center has a bell 🔔 to ring on the last day.  They don’t. Why? They are a larger center with many patients at stage 4 so they will be on chemo until there body gives out.  They don’t want to make them feel bad. I get it, I am grateful to be stage 3. I have a path to cure, many don’t.  So I will celebrate with virtual 🔔 in November but will be quiet and respectful at the center. 

Love you all! Thanks for allowing me to be transparent and sharing my journey with me!

I took the kids to a hotel for one night just to relax and bond- no cancer talk allowed!

Published by valvelde

Breast Cancer Survivor. Mom of three. Lover of all things Agriculture. Living with Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS), autoimmune disease. Stories from my life.

Leave a comment